balderdash

I've been going to the gym for a month and i haven't lost a single ounce. I am way way behind in my teaching/grading. The papers i have been grading are dismal. A hit the dh the wrong way at kung fu practice & now dh has a fracture in his orbital lobe (bones around the eye) & needs surgery. My mother put my cell phone in the washer. I keep telling her NOT TO DO THE LAUNDRY because shit like this always happens, but, uh, noone ever listens to me so why should that be any different? C's tea party was rained out last weekend & next weekend probably noone will come because it is a holiday weekend. The patio furniture hasn't come yet, anyway. M & T are ridiculously bad-tempered....could be molars coming in. The new car is flashing "maintenance required". I finished C's dress that i was knitting and it looks lousy because she is currently rather pudgy. So, what, now i need to put the 5-year old on a diet too?

OK, i'm just complaining. It's monday, i can complain. It's the start of a new week. This week will be better, right?

probability and statistics

Statistics. When you draw the right card, you can quote them with glee. When you draw the wrong card, they are worthless. And people commonly say that you can make statistics mean anything you want anyway. Which is, ahem, probably true.

Statistics, of course, are largely based on ideas of probability. But what is so fascinating is that you can also make up probability scenarios which are mathematically correct but somehow also seem largely meaningless, or counterintuitive, or just plain WRONG. Here's a great example:


Probability can Bite

If you don't want to read the article, the synopsis is this: If i say "I tell you I have two children and that (at least) one of them is a boy, and ask you what you think is the probability that I have two boys." the answer is 1/3. However, if i say "I tell you I have two children and that (at least) one of them is a boy born on a Tuesday, and ask you what you think is the probability that I have two boys." the probability changes to 13/27....which is quite different, closer to 1/2 than 1/3.

WTF, that doesn't make sense at all!


Fine, ok, the numbers are correct. But you can hardly convince me that it is relevant that one boy was born on a Tuesday. You know, i have always hated probability because of shit like this. But at least it helps me not worry about it so much.

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I thought about this some more. It helps to actually do the calculation (which i did just to check it...and to make myself understand it. I can't really believe any conclusion from one of these probability problems unless i draw it out myself on a probability tree.) What we have here is basically a variation on the Monty Hall problem. It illustrates nicely a few important things that must be kept in mind when faced with any and all probabilities/statistics --

1. Any information at all changes your sample space (mathematically speaking, that is).

2. The way a question is stated can radically change the answer.

The only thing this problem lacks is something to help us remember that:

Correlation does not equal causation!

For that we need to change the problem to include a baby born dead (on Tuesday) to a mother who is poor, smokes, and doesn't brush her teeth!

I got nothin'

In the garden, i mean...i realize i haven't posted pictures for a few weeks. That's 'cause there is nothing to post, really. It's been rainy, and cold, and a few things are blooming & holding through but it's a quiet time. Bearded irises have opened in Nicolas' garden and a few white roses...we are waiting for the roses to start blooming but with this cold weather we have been having it will be a few weeks i think. It is supposed to be nice this weekend so i will try to get out there with the camera and take some pics.

Meanwhile, it is somehow a crazy, busy time. Not more than usual, i suppose. Just the change of schedule (summer semester started, i have to teach, blah, because i lost my grant, blah blah blah) so that takes a little time to get used to. Dh is away this weekend visiting his mom, because her best friend died this week after a long and gruesome illness. We should probably all have gone -- very close family friends, my MIL was at her bedside with the family when she died -- but that is a huge undertaking and would have involved taking my mom too, and honestly my mother should be kept far away from any situation in which anyone is grieving because there is no knowing what stupid-ass thing is going to pop out of her mouth next. I feel bad to be missing the memorial, though.

Right, i should probably get to work here.

prescription

I was rather struck by this comment, left on one of these many NY Times stories about depression and psychoanalysis:

"As a psychotherapist for 20 years, who once was myself a patient, I must protest the drugging of America in the name of healing. Certainly, in some conditions such as true schizophrenia and severe bipolar illness, appropriate medication can be a life-saver. But for most people, psychotropic drugs are a chemical straitjacket which keeps the patient in a debilitating situation which needs adjustment, such as a dysfunctional marriage to a tyrant (needs divorce) or employment by a sadist (needs a job change). Anxiety and depression are nature's way of making us so uncomfortable we are motivated to alter out situation. To be blunt, so far as I'm concerned, prozac and ritalin are glorified pot and cocaine; such med should be used very judiciously; getting enough sunlight, exercise, involvement with loving people, meaningful work, and healthy eating are my prescription for most of my clients, as well as for myself."

Yeah, i think he overstates the case a little there. Still, i am mired in my own unhealthy moods and i tried drugs already and that didn't work. So it seems to me that the prescription at the end is not such a bad one at that. In fact, if i *could* just be a little more active, and find myself some `meaningful work', i do think that would go a long way toward solving my problems.

So i started going to the gym, like honestly, really i am. This is embarrassing -- i have a payroll deduction to give me access to the gym at school, which i signed up for seven years ago. In that seven years, i had never once even been in the gym building.

Well, my summer schedule is a little different than the usual one, so i started to go to the gym in the morning. I went last week, and this week i signed up with a personal trainer once a week so i *have* to go now. It's good. It actually does help the mood, helps the anger. It would be great to lose weight and be in shape and not flabby, but my goal is not so much weight loss but just to be mentally healthier. The trainer says i eat badly and drink too much. Well, that is true. He said we would work on that.

So my plan is to get into a rhythm so that when the winter hits, i still go, and i hope it will help. That, and the sun lamp, and doing some real work, is my plan for next winter. And if that isn't working, then back to the therapist/psychiatrist to try another med if i have to.

wish i could do that

C: Manuel got in trouble today, he kicked Mickey in the back!

me: Oh, that's bad. Did he get time out?

C: NO, mom, we don't have time out in school! You know that! But he got on red.

me: Ah yes.

C: Well, he was already on yellow because he poked Maggie at naptime. And then when he kicked Mickey he got on red.

me: So, remind me, tomorrow will he start on green again?

C: Yes, we each start on green every day.

me: But you stayed on green all through March, you got an award for that. And for April too!

C: Yeah, but i was just on yellow the other day.

me: Really? What did you do??

C: I don't remember, but me & Maggie got yellow.

me(with a fair amount of skepticism in my voice): You don't remember what you did?

C: Nope. My head has erased it out completely.

me: That is a very useful skill.